COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye. 9–20 November 2026.

• The host agreement, signed in June and made public on 25 September, says participants must “respect Türkiye’s laws and regulations and not to interfere in its internal affairs.” Whether conduct breaches this is “evaluated on a case-by-case basis, with close coordination between the country’s authorities and the UN climate change body.” [3]
• The same agreement gives accredited attendees immunity for statements, writings, and actions connected to the conference, reaching beyond the UN-run Blue Zone in certain circumstances and continuing after the summit. The UN can waive it where it believes immunity would “impede the course of justice.” [3]
• An official reportedly told lawmakers on 16 July that authorities would not “offer explicit security guarantees for public protests outside UN-controlled zones.” The Blue Zone is under UN jurisdiction; the Green Zone is under Turkish administrative authority. [5] The COP31 president-designate has said his team will “try to meet” activists’ requests. [4]
• Precedent: before the NATO summit in Ankara on 7–8 July, overnight raids on 22–23 June detained at least 209 people, later counted at 225, including activists, lawyers, an academic, and a journalist, on terrorism-law allegations. Ankara then banned all public assemblies from 28 June to 10 July. [7][8]
• The precedent reached Antalya. Its governorate banned protests, marches, and similar events across the province from 1 to 9 July because of the Ankara summit. [24]
• The UK FCDO notes that insulting the President or Atatürk is a criminal offence, that it applies to online comments “no matter where you were or when you posted them,” and that penalties run from six months to three years. [10]

Rating: elevated for public expression, moderate for other attendees. Confidence: moderate. The facts are well sourced; whether the NATO pattern repeats for COP31 is our inference.

• A ceasefire took effect on 8 April and a memorandum was signed on 17 June. Around 7–9 July the US struck 85 and then 90 Iranian targets, and Iran retaliated against US assets and Gulf infrastructure. Trump called the memorandum “over” on 9 July while saying talks could continue. [13][14]
• As of 29 September, Iran had offered a seven-day plan and the US had rejected it. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and a vessel was struck there on 28 September. [12]
• As of late August, nearly 3,500 flights across Europe and Türkiye had been disrupted. Services to Gulf cities remain suspended or reduced, Istanbul is the main rerouting hub, and Antalya is among airports with knock-on delays. Compensation under EC 261 is unlikely for conflict disruption. [15]
• The UK FCDO tells travellers to prepare for cancellations and airspace closures and to avoid military facilities. [9] We found no reporting of Iranian strikes on Türkiye itself.

Rating: elevated for travel disruption, low to moderate for direct physical threat. Confidence: moderate on disruption, low on direct threat, because absence of reported attacks is not proof and our search was not exhaustive.

• The UK FCDO says terrorists “are likely to try to carry out attacks in Turkey,” most often in the southeast, Ankara, and Istanbul, at places visited by foreigners and at large gatherings. [10]
• On 7 April three gunmen fired at least 24 shots in under a minute outside the Israeli consulate in Istanbul. One attacker was killed and two police officers were injured. Türkiye then detained nearly 200 alleged Islamic State suspects. [16]
• On 23 May Türkiye and Syria detained 10 alleged ISIL members, including a man believed to be the group’s intelligence chief for Türkiye. [17]
• COP31 is expected to draw nearly 120 heads of state and government, with leaders’ hotels kept confidential. [18] The US advisory is Level 2, advises avoiding crowded public spaces, and restricts the 10 km strip along the Syrian and Iraqi borders. It does not list Antalya as restricted. [11]

Rating: moderate. Confidence: moderate. We found no Antalya-specific 2026 incident, but we did not search Turkish-language sources.