Open Source Information Report. Monday 19 October 2026.

On 18 Oct the Health Ministry confirmed two cases, one fatal, in Wapinda health zone in Nord-Ubangi. It is the eighth province affected. Totals now exceed 9,400 cases and 4,500 deaths since mid-May, with 66 health zones affected and about three quarters of confirmed cases in Ituri. North Kivu is barring entry from Ituri for one week from 19 Oct and has suspended large gatherings. The Central African Republic reports no cases. WHO Africa Director Janabi said the outbreak is "geographically" spreading out. [1] US CDC data as of 15 Oct showed 9,235 confirmed cases and 4,444 deaths. [2]

Assessment: Spread to a border province with weak surveillance makes cases in the Central African Republic more likely, even as some hotspots decline.

Kenya's health ministry reported four new cases on 17 Oct: three health workers who treated the first patient and one relative. On 18 Oct one of 38 people tested was positive, a hospital patient attendant, bringing the total to eight. The first patient was a traveller from the DRC who died in Nairobi on 5 Oct. All cases are the Bundibugyo strain, for which there is no licensed vaccine. [3]

Assessment: A transmission cluster among Nairobi hospital staff is now likely, and further cases among health workers and contacts are likely.

Military sources said air defences downed RSF suicide drones aimed at the Upper Atbara and Setit dam complex, the Khashm El-Girba dam and 2nd Infantry Division headquarters in Gedaref on 18 Oct. No casualties or damage were reported. It is the second such raid on eastern Sudan since 15 Sep. [4]

Assessment: The RSF likely intends to keep army rear areas and infrastructure near the Eritrean and Ethiopian borders under threat.

An attack on 17 Oct near Bir Siliba, on the Chad border, killed displaced people who were harvesting crops, including children. Radio Tamazuj, citing the Darfur health minister, calls it a drone strike that killed 10 and wounded 5. [5] Sudan Tribune quotes the same official as saying an RSF attack killed at least 11 and wounded dozens. [6] The army-aligned Joint Force took Bir Siliba in early October.

Assessment: Fighting for the Chad border corridor will likely keep driving refugees into Chad.

Pre-window onset: Burhan's envoy Minni Minnawi delivered a written message for Chancellor Merz to German Minister of State Serap Güler in Berlin on 16 Oct. Güler called for an urgent ceasefire. [7] On 18 Oct a French envoy visited the national dialogue preparatory committee in Khartoum and urged the international Quintet to back the process. [8]

Assessment: Burhan is likely seeking European backing for an army-led political track alongside his outreach to Washington.

Officials and witnesses said forces loyal to ousted South West State leader Laftagareen took Berdale, Dinsoor, Qansaxdheere and Awdiinle, the last about 30 km from Baidoa, mostly without fighting. In Berdale, local officials fled to an AU mission (AUSSOM) base, where Ethiopian troops did not intervene. The state information minister vowed to retake the districts. [9]

Assessment: The loyalists are encircling Baidoa while AUSSOM stays out, which raises the likelihood of a fight for the state capital.

A patrol vehicle hit a command-wire roadside bomb at Kinuba, about 25 km from Gamboru on the Cameroon border, on 17 Oct, killing all eight soldiers aboard. [10] The army chief visited troops in Maiduguri the same day after the Mairari base attack, which Africanews says killed 15 soldiers. [11]

Assessment: ISWAP is likely following its base raids with bombings on border roads to restrict army movement in northern Borno.

Government spokesman Patrick Muyaya said former President Kabila "has decided to formalise his widespread attack against the Republic," responding to the launch of the M23-linked FRN front in Goma. FRN leader Freddy Kaniki said the front takes on the AFC's obligations under the Doha process. [12] Al Jazeera reports growing public fear in Kinshasa, and opposition leader Kamerhe urged the FRN to give up armed struggle. [13] No new fighting dated 17-18 Oct was found.

Assessment: Kinshasa now treats the FRN as a national threat, which will likely make the Doha talks harder to keep alive.

Pre-window onset: At a Juba ceremony on 16 Oct, Gen. Mawien Mathiang Gor said former Vice President Bol Mel plotted to overthrow Kiir. He gave no evidence. Three detainees held for about five months without trial were released, and nine others remain detained. Elections are set for December 2026. [14]

Assessment: The claim is single-source and unsubstantiated, but it likely signals continued narrowing of Kiir's inner circle before the vote.

An Al Jazeera feature describes the piracy resurgence since late April 2026, based on clan networks. It notes the IMO confirmed on 2 Oct that three hijacked vessels had been freed and 44 seafarers released, with five crew killed during one rescue. [15]

Assessment: Piracy groups will likely remain active off Puntland despite naval patrols.

On 18 Oct, in a Truth Social post endorsing Netanyahu for Israel's 27 Oct election, Trump said the US and its allies would "soon finish the job" unless Tehran changes course. Foreign Minister Araghchi replied on X: "Be our guest. But be careful; we have unfinished jobs too." He said Netanyahu is "driving America into another war to stay out of jail." [16] At a Kentucky rally the same day, Trump said the war would end "very quickly." [17] No US strike decision or action was reported in the window.

Assessment: The rhetoric likely points to renewed US strikes after the 3 Nov midterms rather than immediate action, and Tehran is signalling that it would retaliate.

On 17 Oct the IRGC said two tankers, each carrying about 2 million barrels of crude, hit naval mines in the strait and caught fire after switching off their positioning systems and using an unauthorised route. The ships were not named, and the claim is unverified. IRGC Navy commander Ali Azmaei said any vessel that turns off its navigation systems will be treated as "hostile." Kpler data cited by Al Jazeera show transits fell from about 20.8 million barrels on 8 Oct to 2.9 million on 11 Oct. [18]

Assessment: Iran is likely enforcing its transit-permission regime by force. Whether it is using mines or projectiles remains unclear, given CENTCOM's finding last week that a projectile sank the GFS PRIDE.

UKMTO reported that a southbound tug northeast of Khor Fakkan was struck by "two projectiles of unknown origin" on 18 Oct. One person had minor injuries and the tug continued its voyage. [19] CBS, citing UKMTO, reported 10 attacks on shipping in the week to Friday, making October the busiest month since March. A tanker was hit by an unknown projectile off Saudi Arabia on 17 Oct, and a second ship was hit by an RPG from a small boat near Al Jubayl. [20]

Assessment: Attacks now reach the UAE's Gulf of Oman coast and Saudi Gulf waters, which likely widens the threat area beyond the strait.

Speaking at the OIC foreign ministers' meeting in Baghdad on 18 Oct, Araghchi said the strait would reopen on day six if Washington accepts Iran's mid-September proposal, with talks on day seven. The proposal's terms include ending the US naval blockade, lifting oil sanctions and a ceasefire on all fronts. He said Tehran is still reviewing US "comments" on the plan. [21][20]

Assessment: Positions have not moved, and an agreement before the US midterms is unlikely.

The Majlis confirmed Mehrdad Akhlaghi Ketabchi as defence minister on 18 Oct by 237 votes to 15. He replaces Brig. Gen. Nasirzadeh, who was killed in a US-Israeli strike in February. Ketabchi previously led Iran's aerospace and defence industries organisations and is under US and UN sanctions for missile work. He warned the US of "enormous damage" and said Iran has "taken the necessary measures" against a MOAB strike. [22]

Assessment: The appointment likely signals priority on rebuilding and dispersing Iran's missile capability.

Lavrov met GCC foreign ministers in Manama on 18 Oct. The GCC secretary-general said member states have faced more than 7,000 Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks since 28 Feb, and asked Moscow to press Tehran to stop. Lavrov offered an updated Russian Gulf collective-security plan and travelled to Tehran on 19 Oct for talks with Araghchi. [23]

Assessment: Moscow is positioning itself as a mediator, but there is no sign it can restrain Iranian attacks on Gulf states.

Saudi Civil Defence said a Houthi projectile injured six people and damaged homes and vehicles in Najran on 18 Oct. [24] On 17 Oct the coalition said it intercepted two ballistic missiles aimed at Khamis Mushait and drones over Riyadh and the Eastern Province. An AH-6i helicopter crashed in Najran, killing its two crew. Saudi officials blamed a technical malfunction, while the Houthis claimed a shoot-down. Houthi media said Saudi strikes killed 12 people on 17 Oct and 9 on 18 Oct in northern Yemen. Egypt's President Sisi said Egypt would defend Saudi Arabia "if requested." [20]

Assessment: Najran and Asir will likely remain the most exposed areas as the Saudi-Houthi exchange settles into daily cross-border fire.

King Khalid International Airport reopened on 18 Oct. Lufthansa has suspended flights to 18 Nov, Cathay Pacific to 31 Jan 2027, and Air France, Air India and IndiGo to 24 Oct. Qatar Airways and Air Arabia have given no resumption date, and Delta pushed back its Atlanta-Riyadh launch to March 2027. The Kingdom Centre tower told tenants to work remotely "until further notice." [25]

Assessment: Air access to Riyadh will likely stay badly degraded for weeks despite the reopening.

US missions in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Jordan and elsewhere issued alerts on 18 Oct. They say Iranian-supported Houthis have hit Saudi civilian airports and infrastructure, that hostilities "could escalate quickly," and that Iran and its proxies may target US interests worldwide. Americans are told to keep a low profile and to plan for airspace closures at Riyadh, Jeddah and Dhahran. [26]

Assessment: The region-wide alert likely reflects a higher assessed risk of proxy attacks on US persons.

On 17 Oct masked settlers attacked a delegation in Taybeh with metal bars. It included Belgium's consul general, French and Polish diplomats and Catholic representatives, and a French mayor was beaten. Belgium pledged to push for more EU sanctions, and Israel's foreign minister condemned the violence. [27] Police later arrested 10 suspects over weekend attacks on a journalist and the diplomats. On 19 Oct Defence Minister Katz said settler violence is a matter for the police, not the IDF. [28]

Assessment: The attack likely raises the chance of new EU sanctions on settlers and becomes an issue in Israel's election campaign.

The IDF said weekend strikes in Gaza City and Jabalia killed three Hamas operatives, including a cell commander, citing ceasefire violations. [29] Medical sources quoted by Xinhua said four Palestinians, including a child, were killed on 18 Oct, and put the toll since the October 2025 ceasefire at 1,517. [30]

Assessment: The ceasefire is fraying steadily but is likely to hold in name.

Hezbollah is paying families who lost homes $14,000 in Beirut and $12,000 elsewhere. Al Jazeera cites Reuters reporting that Iran provided $200 million, which a State Department official disputed. Analysts say the payments complicate the government's push to curb Hezbollah after recent explosives seizures. [31]

Assessment: Hezbollah is likely rebuilding support among its base, which weakens the Aoun government's leverage on disarmament.

Pakistani security sources said troops killed "several" Afghan Taliban personnel and destroyed two posts in Upper Kurram on 17 Oct. The claim is unverified, and the Taliban had not commented. [32] Pakistan also suspended trade at the Taftan and Gabd-Rimdan crossings with Iran, citing security and smuggling, stranding hundreds of trucks and cutting more than 4,000 tonnes a day of LPG. [33]

Assessment: Pressure on both western borders will likely tighten fuel supplies in Balochistan.

At the OIC meeting in Baghdad on 18 Oct, Iraq's foreign minister said "we cannot buy security from abroad" and promoted a "6+2" framework of the GCC plus Iraq and Iran. [34] On 19 Oct Qatar's defence minister of state said Qatar will soon announce a local defence-production centre with a regional partner and the US, UK and France. [35]

Assessment: Gulf and Iraqi capitals are likely hedging toward regional security arrangements as the war continues.

Citing the state agency SANA, Arab News reported that security forces arrested two suspected ISIS members and seized a bomb meant for a police patrol near Damascus. An army engineer was killed clearing old ordnance in the Tanf area. [36]

Assessment: The ISIS cell threat to Syrian security forces likely persists at a low level.

Russia's defence ministry said it downed 1,015 Ukrainian drones overnight 17-18 Oct over 15 regions, Crimea and the Black Sea, including 145 over Leningrad region. Hits were reported on the St Petersburg Oil Terminal, a fuel depot, warehouses, an Ozon logistics hub and a VK data centre. The governor reported one killed and five injured, and about 20,000 people lost power. Pulkovo airport was restricted. [37] Russian state media called it the largest attack on the city since 2022. [38]

Assessment: The strike shows Ukraine can mass deep attacks on Russia's Baltic export hub and is likely to deepen friction with Washington over strikes on energy targets.

In the day to 18 Oct Russia launched one Iskander-M and 180 drones, of which 152 were intercepted. Ten people were killed and 73 injured, seven of the dead in Donetsk region, and energy and industrial sites in Volyn, Rivne and Ternopil were hit. [39] On the night of 18 Oct ballistic missiles struck Kyiv with about three minutes' warning, hitting a medical centre in Desnianskyi district. The Kyiv Independent later reported three waves, at least one killed and eight injured. [40]

Assessment: Russia's winter campaign against Ukraine's energy system will likely continue through the week.

Pre-window onset: Trump largely waived the measures of the Sanctioning Russia Act on 16 Oct (US time), including 500% duties on Russian goods and 100% duties on the top buyers of Russian oil and gas. Kremlin negotiator Dmitriev called it "truly historic." [41] Rubio said Trump wants 60 days to assess the effects. He called reports of a White House Starlink throttle "categorically false" and said, "I'm not sure Zelenskyy knows what he's talking about." [42] This disputes the Reuters account in Friday's edition.

Assessment: Washington has set aside its main economic lever on Moscow with no visible concession in return, which likely weakens Kyiv's position in talks.

On 18 Oct Trump defended the waiver on Truth Social, accused Zelensky of targeting Russian diesel refineries, and wrote "I WANT THIS WAR END!" and "He could have made a better deal two years ago." [43] Zelensky thanked the US for resuming intelligence on missile launches after a three-day pause, held calls with Witkoff and Kushner, and said the war "must be brought to an end." [44]

Assessment: US pressure on Kyiv to halt strikes on Russian energy is rising sharply, with intelligence access likely being used as leverage.

In a Bloomberg interview relayed by the Kyiv Independent, Zelensky said the US is releasing only about 12 Patriot interceptors a month from purchases already paid for under NATO's PURL scheme. He said the delay is "not a technical issue" and that the US demanded a full halt to diesel-infrastructure strikes in exchange for more. The US has not confirmed the figures. [45]

Assessment: If accurate, interceptor deliveries are likely tied to Kyiv's restraint on Russian energy targets, which widens Ukraine's air defence gap.

A likely drone exploded near Juodzionys in northern Lithuania on 18 Oct, damaging a car and sending residents to shelters. NATO jets scrambled but did not engage. The defence minister said it came from Poland, which Polish radar did not confirm, and Ukraine's foreign ministry suggested Russian jamming diverted a Ukrainian drone. [46] Police also foiled an arson attempt on a company storing Starlink equipment, which the prime minister blamed on Russian hybrid warfare. [47]

Assessment: Ukraine's strike corridor toward St Petersburg likely brings more spillover into the Baltic states.

Two Romanian F-16s downed two jet-powered Geran-family drones between 1501Z and 1505Z on 17 Oct, after the drones spent about five minutes in Romanian airspace. The defence ministry did not attribute them. [48]

Assessment: Kinetic intercepts likely mark a firmer NATO posture on Black Sea incursions, ahead of NATO's discussion of the shipping attacks.

Zelensky said Russia uses signal-relay equipment in Belarus to guide drones toward western Ukraine and may base more ballistic missiles there. Ukraine says units equipped with the Oreshnik missile deployed in September. These are Ukrainian government claims. [49]

Assessment: Belarus's growing support role likely raises the threat to western Ukraine and the border with NATO.

Zelensky said on 18 Oct that Ukraine has retaken more ground than Russia captured this fall. A Ukrainian corps reported 277 sq km and 16 settlements regained overall. [50]

Assessment: The claims cannot be verified, but if accurate they strengthen Kyiv's case against territorial concessions.

A Southern Forces spokesman said on 17 Oct that intercepted radio traffic shows two unarmed prisoners were killed, and attributed it to Russia's 38th Motorized Rifle Brigade. [51]

Assessment: The allegation adds to a pattern that will likely feed war-crimes cases.

PM Péter Magyar said grain crossing Hungary faces "no obstacle," responding to Zelensky's request as Russian attacks disrupt Black Sea exports. [52]

Assessment: The post-Orbán thaw likely gives Kyiv a useful overland export route.

More than 500,000 people protested across France on 17 Oct. The prime minister reported 1,200 arrests and 150 police injured. [53] Single wire-based source; not yet corroborated by Reuters or AFP directly.

Assessment: Unrest on this scale may limit the attention and money Paris can give to Ukraine and European defence.

Keen Sword began on 19 Oct and runs to 29 Oct, with about 45,000 Japanese and 12,000 US personnel. Australia, Canada, France, Germany and the Netherlands join some drills. [54] For the first time Japan's Type 25 anti-ship missile, with a range of about 1,000 km, will move outside its Kumamoto base. US Marines are reported to be moving NMESIS and MADIS systems to Yonaguni, about 110 km from Taiwan, though their arrival is unconfirmed. [55][56]

Assessment: The drill puts US and Japanese long-range anti-ship fires in the southwestern islands, and Chinese official protest and shadowing activity are likely during 19-29 Oct.

Global Times quoted a Chinese academic calling the Type 25 deployment "a clear provocation" and highlighted local protests in Japan. No official foreign or defence ministry statement on Keen Sword was found in the window. [57]

Assessment: An official statement is likely once the drills are under way.

On 18 Oct Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration said it drove away 16 Chinese coast guard, research and fishing vessels operating at the same time off Taiwan's east, south and southwest coasts and around Pratas. It called the numbers "unusually large" and accused Beijing of trying to "unilaterally alter the status quo." [58][59][60]

Assessment: Coordinated incursions at several locations likely show China building up coast guard pressure as a gray-zone tool separate from PLA activity.

Taiwan's defence ministry reported 9 aircraft and 6 navy ships in the 24 hours to 17 Oct, 2 aircraft and 5 ships to 18 Oct, and 5 aircraft and 6 ships to 19 Oct. No large PLA exercise was announced. [61][62][63]

Assessment: PLA air activity around Taiwan is at a low baseline while the Liaoning group is in the South China Sea.

On 17 Oct the Chinese Embassy in Manila replied on Facebook to lawmakers seeking to expel Ambassador Jing Quan: "Is this threat or coercion? But anyway, just do it. Otherwise, STOP BLUFFING." [64] Several senators and a congressman called for his expulsion or an apology. The foreign affairs department called expulsion an "option of last resort," and Marcos plans to meet Jing. [65][66]

Assessment: The embassy's response has turned a gaffe into a diplomatic crisis, and the Marcos-Jing meeting is the next decision point.

Pre-window onset: On 16 Oct China's defence ministry spokesman said Defense Secretary Teodoro "cares only about his selfish interests" and called the Philippines "a destroyer of peace." He did not dispute Philippine reports of more than 100 Chinese vessels near Pag-asa and Sabina Shoal, and vowed "firm measures." [67][64]

Assessment: A large Chinese presence near Philippine-held features, alongside personal attacks on officials, raises the risk of a maritime incident.

State broadcaster CCTV reported that four Type 071 amphibious transport docks under the Southern Theater Command held air-defence firing and resupply drills. No location or date was given. [68]

Assessment: Publicising four amphibious ships at once while Keen Sword starts likely signals amphibious readiness.

Pre-window onset: KCNA said a high-speed guided torpedo was test-fired on 15 Oct, with AI applied to target search and guidance. [69] South Korean analysts link it to the dispute over Seoul's 8 Oct hypersonic test. [70] No launches were reported in the window.

Assessment: Pyongyang is concentrating on undersea weapons to offset allied naval strength, and another test during Keen Sword is plausible.

KCNA reported on 19 Oct that the North Korean embassy in Moscow held a banquet on 13 Oct, where a Russian deputy foreign minister cited North Korean troops' role in Kursk. [71]

Assessment: Russian political cover for North Korean weapons testing will likely continue.

A 2 Oct satellite image shows a second ship designed to carry large uncrewed undersea vehicles nearing launch at Guangzhou Shipyard International. The first is under construction in Shanghai. [72]

Assessment: A second hull suggests China is moving toward operational long-range undersea drone capability.

On 19 Oct Australia announced payload integration for the Ghost Shark and Speartooth undersea drones and the Bluebottle surface vessel, including sea mines. Funding is up to $5.8 billion over a decade. [73]

Assessment: Australia is likely moving its uncrewed fleet from surveillance into strike and mining roles, which Beijing will likely criticise.

Pakistan extended its closure to Indian-registered and Indian-leased aircraft for another month, to 24 Nov. The outlet's headline gives 23 Oct, but its text gives the new date. No new Line of Control incident was found. [74]

Assessment: Relations remain frozen, with no sign of new escalation.

At 0900Z on 19 Oct NHC Advisory 24 placed Tropical Storm Trudy at 60 mph, about 155 miles west-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, moving west and "rapidly weakening." No watches or warnings are in effect, and NHC expects it to become post-tropical tonight. [75][76] AP reported that Trudy was a Category 2 storm on 18 Oct and moved away from the coast, and that Mexico lifted all coastal warnings. [77][78] Dangerous surf will continue along southwestern Mexico today.

Assessment: The worst case in Friday's edition did not happen, and the remaining risk is surf and rain on saturated ground.

Mexico's civil protection agency reported no deaths or injuries in Guerrero, Michoacán, Jalisco and Colima as of midday 18 Oct. The navy cleared debris and opened 19 shelters in Jalisco. [79] Colima reported downed trees and poles and one road collapse. Separately, a cold front flooded 1,555 homes in Veracruz and other states. [80]

Assessment: Damage is minor, though late reports of inland flooding or landslides are possible.

A fire began during a live-fire exercise at about 2200Z on 17 Oct and was driven by high winds into the unit's administrative area. National Defence confirmed four soldiers of 3rd Battalion, PPCLI, were killed. [81] Global News reports 39 injured, 19 of them critically, and military sources said a munition likely started a grass fire. Its headline says "at least seven" dead, but its text and the government say four. [82]

Assessment: This is among the deadliest Canadian training accidents in years and will likely bring scrutiny of range-safety decisions and the unit's preparation for Latvia.

Polls are open from 1500Z to 0200Z on 19 Oct. The non-binding tenth question asks whether to stay in Canada or start a legal process toward a separation referendum. Carney urged voters to "vote like Canada's future depends on it." [83] Elections Alberta counted 1,356,873 advance and special ballots, 43.1% of electors, against 809,988 in 2023. [84]

Assessment: Polling suggests Canada will likely win, and the size of the separatist vote will decide whether the movement keeps momentum. Unofficial results are expected after 0200Z on 20 Oct.

Federal prosecutors served a treason warrant on former Chihuahua prosecutor César Jáuregui on 18 Oct and moved him to the Altiplano federal prison. The case concerns an April operation in which two US citizens later identified as CIA died in a vehicle crash. Prosecutor General Godoy said the conduct "attacks sovereignty." [85]

Assessment: The case likely chills state-level security cooperation with US agencies.

A Morena party hopeful was shot dead in Cuajinicuilapa, Guerrero, on 17 Oct. Two alleged cartel operators were killed in a clash with the navy in Colima, and the army arrested a Los Chapitos member in Mazatlán. Details come from a live blog and are not independently confirmed. [86]

Assessment: Election-related violence in Guerrero has started early and will likely grow.

NHC's Atlantic outlook shows no active storms, but a strong non-tropical low off the Southeast coast has a 40% chance of becoming subtropical over seven days. [87] The Outer Banks face gusts of 40-50 mph and 2-4 feet of surge, with Highway 12 at risk of overwash. [88]

Assessment: Coastal flooding on the North Carolina and Virginia coast will likely continue through midweek.

Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro clashed on banking secrecy, Covid deaths, the Banco Master case and Lula's son in the Band debate on 18 Oct. [89] A Poder360 compilation of valid-vote polls shows Flávio ahead in 11 of 13. Datafolha has Flávio at 51-49, the equivalent of Friday's 47-45 on total votes, and Vox Brasil has Lula at 51-49. [90]

Assessment: The 25 Oct runoff will likely remain a toss-up with Flávio slightly ahead, and post-debate polls this week will matter.

On 18 Oct the Unitary Platform agreed to "recognise and support the leadership" of María Corina Machado, who is in exile, and issued 14 proposals for a transition. Machado is not part of the third round of talks between the interim Rodríguez government and the opposition, and no election date is set. [91]

Assessment: The gap between a US-backed stabilisation-first approach and an opposition rallying behind Machado will likely strain the talks.

The ELN and a FARC dissident front fought in rural Tibú and Sardinata on 17 Oct. A drone dropped an explosive near a sports field where children were present, and residents fled Corinto in a caravan. No casualty count was available. [92]

Assessment: Fighting in Catatumbo is not easing, and armed groups' use of drones against civilian areas will likely continue.

InSight Crime's timeline lists the most recent strike on 4 Oct, for a total of 79 strikes and 238 dead. No strike was reported in the window. [93]

Assessment: Strikes appear paused, or unreported, for about two weeks.